Bridging the Gap between Modelling and New Policy Expectations

BPIE and Climact were asked by EIT Climate-KIC to identify key gaps between previous modelling approaches and the expectations and demands for new, improved approaches that better meet policy expectations consistent with Paris Agreement goals.

The objective of modelling is to support policy-makers so that they can develop a better sense of what is possible now, what shall be done in the future and help them take better-informed decisions.

This piece of work is intended as a thought starter, not as an exhaustive review of the topic. The work was mostly based on interviewing members of some of the key modelling teams in Europe as well as users of modelling (policy-makers and NGOs). Following up on these interviews, a survey was built to capture further input.

This paper is structured around three main issues: highlighting some of the developments required to be in line with well-below 2°C trajectories; illustrating some of the barriers policy-making is striving to break and where modelling fits to do so; and proposing ways to improve the link between models and their use by policy-makers.

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